Vitalik Buterin forecasts 60% probability that SNARKs, FHE, and indistinguishability obfuscation reach sub-10x computational overhead by decade's end.
Tech & Launches ·
Vitalik Buterin has assessed the probability that three cryptographic technologies—SNARKs, fully homomorphic encryption, and indistinguishability obfuscation—will achieve practical efficiency gains in coming years. He estimates a 60% chance all three reach single-digit computational overhead, and a 33% chance they approach near-zero additional overhead for large production workloads, according to reporting.
The forecast is grounded in observed progress on individual components. Buterin noted that at least one of the three technologies, most likely SNARKs, could attain sub-10x overhead by 2030, citing existing implementations in specialized hash functions and certain LLM inference tasks already nearing that threshold.
The timeline and specific threshold—single-digit versus sub-10x overhead—remain distinct milestones, with Buterin's confidence higher for the nearer-term sub-10x goal. Whether all three technologies will converge on similar efficiency trajectories, and which may see deployment first in production systems, remain open questions.