Arthur Hayes warns that HYPE could significantly underperform ETH and ZEC due to intensifying competition in perpetual DEX markets, and revealed he has sold all his HYPE and NEAR holdings.
DeFi & Yields ·
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes acknowledged on October 16 that Hyperliquid has validated genuine market demand for on-chain perpetual futures, but argued the investment thesis has weakened as the sector has become a consensus trade. Hayes's concern is not capital loss but significant underperformance relative to assets like ETH and ZEC, driven by intensifying competition among perpetual DEXs that now offer increasingly similar products. Despite crediting the Hyperliquid team's execution, Hayes stated he would use the platform as a consumer but not as an investor, and disclosed selling all his HYPE and NEAR holdings shortly after publicly setting a $150 price target for HYPE.
The reversal underscores a tension in Hayes's positioning: his prior $150 target suggested conviction, yet his exit within days signals a shift in conviction or risk appetite. WuBlockchain noted Hayes maintains a relatively low historical accuracy rate in price forecasting and frequently revises his views, cautioning that readers should weigh his analytical reasoning over specific targets and timing claims.
What remains unclear is whether Hayes's exit reflects a broader retreat from perpetual DEX exposure or a token-specific bet that other players will capture more value. The extent to which competitive pressures will actually compress HYPE's returns versus alternative assets has not been quantified.