Galaxy Research analyzed 2.9 million Polymarket accounts and $82.8B in notional trading volume to characterize trader behavior and profitability patterns.
DeFi & Yields ·
Galaxy Research examined trading patterns across Polymarket's international platform by analyzing 2.9 million accounts that demonstrated active trading behavior, drawing on the complete onchain settlement record of $82.8 billion in notional volume accumulated since the platform's 2020 launch. The research reveals that nearly 7 in 10 retail accounts ended with losses, with the overall population sustaining a net loss of approximately $339 million. Account churn increased sharply following losses, with 15.2% of traders inactive for 30 days after a loss compared to 6.1% after a win, suggesting that losses drive users away from the platform more forcefully than wins encourage continued participation.
The analysis found that trader outcomes varied significantly based on specialization. Roughly 44% of accounts concentrated more than 60% of their activity in a single topic category. Those focusing on sports markets were least profitable, potentially due to the prevalence of casual participants rather than seasoned market operators, while specialists in technology and science categories achieved superior returns. The difference points to whether traders possess genuine informational advantages or analytical depth in their chosen domains.
What remains unclear from the analysis is whether profitability differences between specialist categories reflect structural market conditions, the skill composition of each category's participants, or insider information advantages. The timing of the research—covering an era before recent fee introductions and during early U.S. regulatory re-entry—also means current trading dynamics may differ from the historical patterns documented.