Quarterly options expiry on Sept. 25 sees $14.04B in BTC and $2.1B in ETH contracts expire, with max pain levels at $79K (BTC) and $2,380 (ETH).
DeFi & Yields ·
A quarterly options expiry on September 25 will see roughly 167,000 BTC contracts and 789,000 ETH contracts expire, representing $14.04 billion in notional value for Bitcoin and $2.1 billion for Ethereum. The expiry encompasses 32% of total BTC options open interest and 40% of ETH open interest. Greeks.live data indicates max pain levels—the price at which the greatest number of options lose value—sit at $79,000 for BTC and $2,380 for ETH, with put-to-call ratios of 0.87 and 0.67 respectively.
The lower put-to-call ratios on both assets suggest a relatively balanced skew toward calls, implying traders have positioned more heavily for upside. Market sentiment has recently improved according to available commentary, though the scale of expiring contracts creates potential for sharp price moves if spot prices diverge significantly from max pain levels.
What remains unclear is how current spot prices will interact with these strike distributions at expiry, and whether implied volatility will spike or contract as the event approaches. Historical patterns of quarterly expirations show variable outcomes depending on broader market conditions and the proximity of spot price to max pain.