Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev predicts crypto event contracts will outpace sports betting and become the platform's dominant category within years.
DeFi & Yields ·
Robinhood's CEO believes crypto-linked event contracts are capturing an outsized portion of the platform's prediction markets business and could become the dominant category within several years, displacing sports betting into minority status. Speaking on CNBC, he characterized sports contracts as a "wedge" that initially drove adoption and liquidity before the business expanded into other areas. Event contracts function as derivatives allowing traders to speculate on outcomes—regulatory decisions, elections, sporting events—rather than through traditional sportsbooks, a distinction the CEO emphasizes distinguishes the products from conventional gambling.
The trajectory reflects substantial growth metrics. Robinhood's event-contract revenue jumped more than tenfold year-on-year to $156 million in Q2 2026, making prediction markets the company's fastest-expanding business despite declining crypto trading revenue. Trading volume reached 4.7 billion contracts in August alone, approximately 15 times the prior-year figure. The platform operates through partnerships with Kalshi, which previously secured legal clearance for election-related contracts, and Rothera, a joint venture with Susquehanna licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The prediction markets landscape now encompasses multiple competitors, including CME, Coinbase, and decentralized platforms, alongside emerging stakeholders. Robinhood has taken minority stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-market affiliate OG.com to expand settlement capabilities. Whether the shift toward crypto categories accelerates as rapidly as the CEO projects, or how regulatory developments affect the market's trajectory, remains uncertain.