Sberbank projects 4 trillion rubles in first-year crypto trading
DeFi & Yields ·
Russia's largest lender expects roughly $46 billion in crypto trading during the first year of the country's new digital-asset rules, with plans to expand collateral options for crypto-backed loans once regulators clear the way.
Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov gave the estimate to state news agency TASS, putting first-year trading at about 4 trillion rubles, or roughly $46.43 billion, according to Decrypt. He described that figure as a cautious floor, pointing out that much activity will still move through informal exchange channels outside official venues, and that the market needs time to mature since professional operators have until July 1, 2027 to secure licenses.
The bank is also preparing to widen what it accepts as loan collateral. Alongside Bitcoin, Sberbank intends to take Ethereum and the stablecoin USDT once the central bank clears those tokens for public trading. Popov framed the move as conditional, tying it directly to regulatory sign-off rather than a fixed timeline. Sberbank has already tested this model, having run a Bitcoin-backed lending pilot with mining company Intelion in December 2025, though it has not released loan-to-value ratios, rates, or a start date for the broader rollout.
The forecast lands just ahead of Russia's new crypto framework taking effect on September 1, following legislation signed by President Vladimir Putin in early August that sets rules for trading, custody, and cross-border crypto payments while still barring crypto as payment for goods and services domestically. The Bank of Russia has since released a draft list of assets eligible for public trading, narrowed by market capitalization, trading volume, and a minimum five-year price history — a screen that admitted only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT while excluding tokens such as XRP.
Multiple outlets have picked up the same $46 billion first-year projection, including The Block and coverage tracked by wublockchain.xyz, with Popov's outlook extending further to roughly 7.5 trillion rubles, or about $87 billion, by 2029. Broader context on Russia's regulatory shift is also being tracked by leviathan.news.
The demand driver, according to Popov, is Russia's 14% key interest rate: miners and holders who need liquidity have incentive to borrow against crypto rather than sell it outright, preserving upside exposure. What remains unresolved is when the central bank will actually authorize Ethereum and USDT for public circulation, and what terms — loan-to-value ratios, interest rates, or a concrete launch date — Sberbank will attach to the expanded lending product once approval arrives.