Arthur Hayes argues U.S. Treasury buybacks are creating dollar liquidity that should benefit Bitcoin, signaling entry into a new bull market with elevated volatility.
Macro & Markets ·
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, contends that Treasury buyback expansion under U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is injecting dollar liquidity into markets and positioning Bitcoin to benefit first. In his essay "Same Same But Different," Hayes outlined two scenarios: an aggressive path where the Treasury pursues de facto yield-curve control should the 10-year yield exceed 5%, and a more probable scenario involving progressively larger buybacks paired with deployment of approximately $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account.
Hayes has declared that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market phase, though he forecasts substantially elevated volatility alongside this expansion. Maelstrom is now positioned at maximum risk exposure, holding significant allocations across BTC, ETH, ENA, and ETHFI. His thesis aligns with broader market observations that Bitcoin and gold have rallied as the dollar weakens amid fiscal policy shifts.
The argument rests on whether liquidity expansion from Treasury operations will flow into risk assets at the velocity and scale Hayes anticipates. The trajectory of the 10-year yield and actual pace of buyback deployment remain variables that will test whether his maximum-risk positioning proves prescient or premature.