Bitcoin fell below $80K as strong US jobs data elevated Federal Reserve rate hike odds to 60%, offsetting ETF inflow support.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 following the release of robust US employment data that lifted Federal Reserve rate-hike odds to approximately 60% for a September 16 decision. The labor market added 162,000 jobs in August while maintaining a 4.1% unemployment rate, a combination suggesting the Fed may have less urgency to cut rates. Higher interest rates typically redirect investor capital toward safer assets like government bonds, creating headwinds for Bitcoin despite the cryptocurrency trading roughly 42% above its July low.
Offsetting some of this downward pressure, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded nearly $1 billion in net inflows over the past week. Analysts are assessing whether sustained ETF demand can persist amid elevated short-term rates and have flagged this week's inflation report as a critical test for the asset's near-term direction. Bitcoin has oscillated between roughly $77,200 and $82,100, with a weekly close above $82,100 potentially signaling recovery strength.
The recovery path remains uncertain: while consistent ETF inflows could support Bitcoin if market conditions stabilize, more than 71% of Bitcoin's supply is currently in profit—approaching the historical threshold of 74.7%—which could present a selling opportunity. The outcome will likely hinge on whether inflation data forces the Fed's hand on rate policy or whether ETF buying proves resilient enough to overcome rate headwinds.