Bitcoin holds support while markets await Friday's inflation report and the Fed's September 16 rate decision.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin traded at $78,524 on Tuesday, marking a 0.72% decline as the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to close at 7,689.80. Oil prices moved toward $100 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route handling roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies. Both equities and crypto remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of Friday's inflation report and the Federal Reserve's rate decision scheduled for September 15-16.
Friday's employment figures—showing 162,000 jobs added against a forecast of 53,000—have shifted market expectations toward a rate increase. CME FedWatch data now assigns roughly 57-59% odds to a quarter-point hike at the Fed's mid-September meeting. Rising energy costs threaten to compound inflation signals, creating uncertainty over whether policymakers will tighten monetary conditions. Tighter lending typically pressures risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, as capital rotates toward safer holdings.
Technical indicators show Bitcoin defending its support zone between $73,986 and $75,569, though momentum has cooled from last week's highs. Contract markets on Myriad price a 78.4% probability that Bitcoin reaches $84,000 before falling to $55,000—a positioning nearly unchanged from a week prior despite the recent pullback. Whether these levels hold depends heavily on the economic data and Fed messaging arriving this week.