Bitcoin spot ETFs posted $142.7M in net outflows on July 31, reversing the prior day's $233.1M inflow, signaling weakening institutional conviction after Fed's hawkish stance.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin has struggled to hold above $65,000 following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its most recent meeting, with the cryptocurrency declining roughly $3,000 over subsequent days. Historical patterns suggest FOMC meetings tend to trigger corrective moves regardless of their outcome, and escalating geopolitical tensions—including reported Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and anticipated U.S. counteraction—have added pressure on risk assets. ETF flows have also turned negative, with investors withdrawing $265 million on a single day last week after three weeks of net inflows exceeding $200 million.
Technical indicators present conflicting signals. The TD Sequential metric has generated a sell warning on the three-day chart, while August's historical association with Bitcoin pullbacks frames the period as one worth monitoring. Conversely, some analysts point to recent strength in major equity indices—the Nasdaq and South Korea's KOSPI both rallied sharply—as a potential catalyst for recovery, citing historical correlations between these markets and Bitcoin price action.
The path forward remains uncertain, with bearish macro conditions and technical warnings offset by the possibility of a rebound tied to equity market performance. Neither downside nor upside momentum has proven decisive enough to establish clear direction for the coming week.