Bitcoin spot trading volume hits lowest level since 2019; futures basis yield inverted vs. U.S. Treasury, signaling institutional shift to cash and bonds.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin spot trading volume has declined to its lowest level since 2019, according to Glassnode. The analytics firm attributes the weakness partly to an inversion in the three-month futures basis yield relative to the U.S. two-year Treasury yield, a condition that has persisted since February and represents only the second prolonged instance of this dynamic on record. This yield inversion has redirected institutional capital toward cash positions and government bonds rather than cryptocurrency holdings.
The market currently shows subdued exchange flows and spot exchange-traded fund demand. Bitcoin is consolidating within a cost-basis cluster spanning $62,000 to $68,000, with $69,000 marking key resistance. Glassnode's assessment notes that the ongoing bear market has produced the shallowest drawdown in the firm's recorded history, yet insufficient time has elapsed to establish a confirmed market bottom.
What remains unclear is the timeline for institutional re-entry into Bitcoin or when spot trading volume might recover toward historical norms. Glassnode's model maintains a mildly "Risk Off" posture, leaving the durability of the current consolidation and the sustainability of institutional demand shifts unresolved.