Bitcoin struggles to break above June range as $390M exits US spot BTC ETFs and miners accelerate selling.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin has retreated to its June price floor as institutional demand weakens, with $390 million withdrawn from US spot BTC ETFs in the week ending August 14. The pullback comes despite a significant shift in rate-expectation: July consumer inflation of 0.1% month-on-month reduced September interest-rate-hike probability from roughly even odds to about one-in-three. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 1% over the past 30 days and trades 49% below its October 2025 peak, suggesting the market has not responded to the dovish economic signal that typically supports risk assets. Trading firm Wintermute notes that major miners including Riot Platforms continue liquidating holdings—Riot sold 4,300 BTC in the second quarter and 3,778 BTC in the first—exerting downward pressure as mining economics remain strained.
The combination of ETF redemptions and miner supply appears to have offset any demand stimulus from lower rate-hike odds. Wintermute characterizes the pattern as indicative of margin sellers returning to market, undermining an earlier depletion thesis. A narrow window of positive ETF flows—just under $5 million on Tuesday—contrasts sharply with outflows on four other trading days that week.
One countercurrent emerged: Jane Street's second-quarter filings revealed over $1 billion in US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings, including roughly $828 million in the IBIT fund. This does not capture the firm's derivatives positions, leaving the full extent of institutional appetite unclear. Whether fresh accumulation at this price level will counterbalance miner sales and ETF redemptions remains an open question.