BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts the AI bubble will pop around 2028 due to GPU depreciation mismatches and Chinese competition undercutting Western data center economics.
Macro & Markets ·
In an interview on June 26, 2026, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, projected that the AI bubble will reach a critical juncture around 2028. He contends that the market is currently applying a six-year depreciation schedule to GPUs that have only a two-year useful life, creating a structural mismatch. The debt accumulated in this wave since 2024 will face pressure within roughly two and a half years as these assets deteriorate faster than their accounting treatment assumes.
Hayes argues that Western data center economics will face severe headwinds from competition by equally capable Chinese AI models priced at approximately one-tenth the cost. This price differential, combined with actual demand constraints, will force a collision between the capital invested in expensive infrastructure and the market's ability to justify those costs through returns.
What remains unclear is the precise mechanism by which the 2028 timeframe will trigger a broader market reversal, or whether Hayes's assessment reflects broader industry opinion on AI infrastructure valuations. The claim also hinges on the assumption that Chinese models will maintain technical parity with Western offerings at substantially lower prices.