💥 The coal market, in crisis since 2024, shows signs of recovery as global prices hit multi-year highs. This surge is boosting Russian exports and production, slightly improving the industry's financial health. The main reasons for the market shift are supply instability caused by accidents and Midd
Macro & Markets ·
Global coal prices have reached multi-year highs, marking a potential turnaround for a market beset by losses since 2024. Russian coking coal and pulverized coal injection fuel are commanding significantly stronger prices—coking coal reaching $173 per ton and PCI fuel at $190 per ton on Far Eastern FOB terms—while energy coal prices have climbed to $86–110 per ton depending on calorific value. This rally has boosted Russian export volumes and mining output; Kuzbass exports surged 20% in June–July, and coal industry losses in the first half of 2026 fell 17% compared to the prior-year period.
The price surge stems primarily from supply shortages rather than demand recovery. Chinese coal mine accidents and tightened oversight have constricted metallurgical coal availability, while Middle Eastern conflict has further constrained global supplies. However, Chinese steel production continues declining, limiting coal demand despite the higher prices. One analyst notes that Chinese coal output fell 10.1% year-over-year in July to 343.2 million tons.
Market participants and experts anticipate the current price strength will persist only through the end of 2026, suggesting the recovery may be temporary. Whether sustained demand or only supply-side disruption drives future pricing remains uncertain as global economic conditions, particularly steel sector weakness, continue to weigh on the market's structural outlook.