Glassnode on-chain analysis suggests Bitcoin rebounds are local rallies, not trend reversals, citing weak profit/loss ratios and negative Coinbase Premium indicating insufficient spot demand.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin's price sits below two key on-chain benchmarks: approximately $68,500 (the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis) and $75,800 (the True Market Mean). According to on-chain analysis, Glassnode's models classify the market as remaining in a capitulation state, with several metrics suggesting near-term weakness. Relative Unrealized Loss has topped out at around 25%—substantially lower than the 60% or more recorded in earlier market cycles—while the 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stands at 0.75, still above the sub-0.5 threshold historically tied to exhaustion among sellers.
Recent trading activity presents a mixed picture. Perpetual futures contracts have seen demand return to positive territory and exchange-traded fund inflows are stabilizing, yet the Coinbase Premium indicator remains in negative territory. This divergence points to a shortage of sustained buying interest from U.S. spot buyers. Glassnode's assessment frames current price bounces as localized moves rather than sustainable reversals, contingent on two preconditions: yield conditions must ease and the profit/loss ratio must climb toward 2.
What remains unclear is the timing or catalyst for the metric shifts required to signal a genuine trend shift, as well as whether macro conditions affecting yields will align with on-chain demand patterns in the near term.