Over half of tokenized U.S. stock trading now occurs outside market hours, with overnight price moves on crypto tokens predicting 87% of the subsequent open-market movement.
Macro & Markets ·
Tokenized U.S. stocks—crypto representations of shares in companies like Tesla and Nvidia—are now trading predominantly outside regular market hours, with more than half of all such trading occurring after the close, according to research cited by the IMF. On Robinhood Chain specifically, the figure reaches two-thirds. These instruments appeal primarily to international investors seeking continuous price exposure without waiting for New York market open, and approximately 80% of trades involve fractional amounts below a single share.
The overnight price movements in these tokens have begun to influence the opening behavior of underlying equities. Within five minutes of the market bell, real stocks absorb more than 87% of the price change that occurred in their tokenized counterparts during overnight hours. This suggests that token trading—historically considered a peripheral market—now functions as a price-discovery mechanism for traditional equities.
The tokenized stock market remains relatively small at roughly $3.3 billion in total value and exhibits higher volatility than its underlying assets, with tokens swinging approximately 1.5 times as hard as the real shares. However, the consistent predictive relationship between overnight token moves and open-market stock behavior indicates a structural shift in how price information flows between traditional and crypto markets, even as Wall Street maintains formal market control through its opening bell.