Market participants are pricing in a >53% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting.
Macro & Markets ·
Market participants have priced in a probability exceeding 53% for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting, according to CME FedWatch data. The metric reflects real-time expectations derived from fed funds futures contracts, which traders use to hedge or position ahead of monetary policy announcements. The threshold suggests market consensus has shifted toward the likelihood of tighter policy at that particular decision point, though such probabilities remain subject to rapid revision as economic data and Fed communications evolve.