Russia sets first-year crypto trading forecast at $46.43 billion under new broker rules
Regulation & Gov ·
Sberbank's deputy chairman projects regulated exchange volume climbing to $87.06 billion by 2029 once legal crypto purchases through brokers begin September 1.
Anatoly Popov, deputy chairman at Sberbank, has put a number on what regulated crypto trading could look like in Russia once the country's central bank opens the door to legal purchases through licensed brokers, according to wublockchain.xyz. His estimate: at least $46.43 billion changing hands on approved platforms in the first twelve months, a figure he suggests could nearly double to $87.06 billion within roughly four years as the market matures.
The framework hinges on a September 1 start date, after which investors will be able to buy digital assets through brokers operating under central bank oversight rather than through unregulated channels. For most retail participants, though, access will come with a ceiling: non-qualified investors are capped at $3,800 in crypto purchases per year through any single licensed intermediary, a limit designed to gate exposure for those without qualified-investor status.
The asset menu on these regulated venues will also be narrow at launch. Official exchanges are currently cleared to handle only three tokens — Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether — meaning the projected volume figures rest on a small basket of assets rather than the broader market.
The forecast has drawn attention beyond the original report, with theblock.co also covering Sberbank's projection as the September 1, 2026 rule change approaches, underscoring that the estimate is being treated as a notable marker for how quickly formal crypto trading could scale inside Russia's banking system.
What remains unclear is how the $3,800 retail cap and the three-asset restriction will shape actual trading behavior once the rules take effect, and whether volumes will track Popov's projections or diverge as licensed brokers, qualified investors, and the broader regulatory apparatus around Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether trading begin operating in practice. Whether asset eligibility expands beyond the initial three tokens before 2029 is also an open question.