Mizuho warns Circle faces 10-20% medium-term revenue downside as AI agents redirect USDC holders to higher-yield alternatives.
DeFi & Yields ·
Mizuho has flagged a potential 10–20% medium-term decline in Circle's reserve revenue, driven by AI agents redirecting USDC holders toward higher-yielding alternatives. The analysis suggests that autonomous agents may steer stablecoin users away from Circle's platform to competing services or fiat-based yield opportunities, eroding a key revenue stream.
The mechanism centers on how AI systems optimize returns for their users. Rather than maintaining USDC holdings passively, agents equipped with yield-seeking logic could automatically route liquidity to platforms offering better returns, whether denominated in fiat or alternative assets. This behavioral shift would compress Circle's net interest margins and associated reserve revenues if the trend takes hold at scale.
The assessment leaves several questions unresolved: the timeframe over which such migration might occur, the actual percentage of USDC supply that AI agents currently control or will control, and whether Circle has countermeasures to retain yield-sensitive holders or compete on returns.