LA ice cream shop owner hedged weather risk on Kalshi prediction market platform, earning 43% of monthly rent.
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An ice cream shop owner in Los Angeles has used Kalshi, a prediction market platform, to offset revenue losses tied to unfavorable weather. Jason Jiang, 37, who operates 28wishes in downtown LA alongside his brother James, has generated approximately $1,500 monthly through forecasting cold snaps and adverse conditions on the platform. This income represents roughly 43 percent of his $3,500 monthly rent, achieved by betting $20 per day on climate outcomes since April.
Jiang's strategy addresses a core business vulnerability: ice cream sales decline roughly 20 percent when temperatures drop below 70 degrees. Rather than absorb these losses passively, he and his brother use meteorological forecasts, climate publications, and social media accounts of scientists to predict weather shifts and place corresponding positions on Kalshi. The brothers reportedly earn up to $800 in a single day from accurate predictions, though they characterize their $600 monthly stake as manageable risk.
Kalshi, launched in 2021 by former MIT graduates and holding regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, operates with over 5 million monthly active users. The platform permits wagering on diverse outcomes ranging from political contests to entertainment events. Some U.S. states, including Arizona and Ohio, have moved to restrict the app's availability.